Wrapping up Macron's Republic Day visit to India + Links
And a new Election Tricycle episode!
This week on the Election Tricycle, a weekly podcast from myself, Emily Tamkin and Tom Hamilton where we look at upcoming elections in India, the US and the UK, I discussed the BJP’s instrumentalisation of investigative agencies and what that says about Indian democracy. We also examined the court cases against Donald Trump, and perceptions about Rishi Sunak, the richest ever UK prime minister, and briefly touched on the election in Pakistan.
Please do listen, subscribe, share and send feedback for our little election-year show, which you can find here:
For context on investigative agencies as tools against the Indian Opposition, see this handy list from the Indian Express of all the various cases against chief ministers and other top leaders, this week’s piece by the Economist, and this report from Supriya Sharma and Arunabh Saikia about how the Enforcement Directorate, India’s financial crimes agency, has been weaponised and politicised.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi was about to visit Paris as the chief guest for France’s annual Bastille Day parade last year, we spoke to Tara Varma – currently a visiting fellow in the Center of the United States and Europe at Brookings – about the ‘Macron Method’, different ideas of ‘strategic autonomy’ and where relations between India and France stood.
Two weeks ago, French President Emannuel Macron made the return trip, as chief guest to India’s Republic Day parade, standing alongside Modi as 95 French Foreign Legion troops and a 30-member French band marched down Kartavya Path (née Rajpath) and Rafale jets flew overhead.
Macron went first to Jaipur with Modi (including a roadshow and a slightly too-close-to-camera selfie), was reportedly pleased that the Presidential horse buggy was brought back out for the parade in New Delhi instead of the limousine of the last few years, and even took the time to visit the Nizammudin Dargah to listen to some Qawwali before heading back to Paris.
In between, the two leaders also got a chance to sit down and hammer out some agreements, including a defence industrial partnership that will “bring some parity with the India-U.S. defence production plan finalised last year.”
(Note: Macron was Modi’s second choice for Republic Day guest this year, with New Delhi having first invited US President Joe Biden and floated the idea of an R-Day Quad Summit, until it became evident that the schedules were not aligning).
From the Hindu:
“While the two countries did not announce any progress on negotiations for the big-ticket government-to-government deals on fighter-jets, engines and submarine that were announced during Mr. Modi’s visit to Paris last July, officials said that at least one joint venture for the local manufacture of civilian helicopters was agreed between Airbus and TATA during the visit. Two mega multi-billion dollar defence deals in the pipeline between the two countries — the 26 Rafale-M fighter jets for the Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers, and three additional Scorpene-class conventional submarines — are currently in the cost negotiation phase, sources said. As reported by The Hindu earlier, the deals could be ready for conclusion by year-end.
…
The defence industrial roadmap with France that “prioritises co-designing, co-development, co-production” mirrors India’s joint efforts with the U.S. for co-design and co-development of military systems. However, with France, the depth of the strategic partnership is reflected in the co-design efforts and France’s willingness to transfer jet engine technology that only a handful of countries possess.”
There was also an agreement to further cooperate on surveillance of the Southwest Indian Ocean, a commitment to “revitalise” the India-France-Australia trilateral as well as deepen the India-France-UAE grouping, and Indian appreciation for Macron’s decision to appoint a Special Envoy for the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor that was announced on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi last year.
The full joint statement is here. Given that he was visiting just days after the Ram Temple consecration, Macron also received what was likely to have been a surprise gift from the Indian side:
There was also the matter of French journalist Vanessa Douignac, who was served a notice about why her Overseas Citizen of India card should not be revoked for her reporting thata the government alleged created a “biased negative perception about India”. News of the notice to Douignac, who has lived in India for 22 years, broke just days before Macron’s visit.
Again, from the Hindu:
[Indian Foreign Secretary] Kwatra added that the French government had also raised the issue of a French journalist who could be deported after she was handed a notice by the government, but insisted that this was a matter of “compliance of the rules”. On Friday, at least 30 foreign correspondents based in India issued a letter of protest over the case, saying that they were all “grappling with increased visa restrictions in recent years”, and appealing to the government to help “facilitate the vital work of a free press in line with India’s democratic traditions”.
I’ve collected some of the analysis and responses to the visit and broader discussion of the Indo-French relationship below:
Dinakar Peri’s thread collects some key points from the joint statement (which came several hours later than expected on the 26th):
C Raja Mohan on emerging challenges for the two states:
“The challenge for Modi and Macron does not lie in abstract conceptions like “multipolarity” and “strategic autonomy”. It is about addressing the real questions at hand.
How to bring peace to Ukraine and arrange a stable security order in Central Europe? How can India contribute to European security? How can France boost India’s capabilities for deterring war in Asia? How to protect the SLOCs in the waters of West Asia in case the US, which is doing the heavy lifting now, pulls back? Trade through the Red Sea is more important for India and Europe than the US.
For nearly a century, the distant power, America, has underwritten the security of Eurasia. If the Trump phenomenon is about the US rethinking the costs and benefits of that role, the regional powers in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia must step forward in addressing the current crises as well as develop long-term plans to stabilise Eurasia and its waters.”
Mohan Kumar, former ambassador to France, jots down some of the takeaways:
The most significant and substantive outcome to emerge from this visit is the “Roadmap for Indo-French Defence Industrial Partnership”. While the document itself is classified in nature, there are enough tell-tale signs to indicate that the roadmap signals the fundamental transition from a buyer-seller relationship to co-design, co-development and co-production for not only fulfilling the defence needs of the Indian armed forces but also to provide a reliable source of defence supplies to other friendly countries.
Mathieu Droin summarised the outcomes, put together this handy thread on Indo-French ties and argued that, even though India and France often emphasise their deliberate decisions not to toe the US line, a closer partnership between New Delhi and Paris is in American interests:
The Brothers Blarel, Olivier and Nicolas (the latter of whom we spoke to last year on India-Israel relations), write:
As aspiring major net security providers in the region, and in light of their growing bilateral coordination, France and India have the tools and legitimacy to become the main drivers of a novel cooperative and inclusive security architecture in the region. Despite the substantial development of bilateral maritime cooperation, the challenges ahead require a much deeper and comprehensive collaboration.” - Olivier Blarel and Nicolas Blarel
Frédéric Grare points out the potential obstacles to the relationship, which he writes is an an “age of maturity”:
The Franco-Indian relationship is not free from potential fragilities either. Decision-making in India is carried out on the basis of a narrowly-defined national interest. Indian foreign policy is deeply coherent, driven by the sole imperative of maximizing India’s national interest. India is aware of the value of its cooperation with France, but does not intend to be locked into an exclusive relationship, particularly as it is being courted by a significant part of the international community.” - Frederic Grare
Michael Kugelman on what sets India-French ties apart from its relationships with other Western powers:
“Both advocate for strategic autonomy, even if they each take different approaches. India’s strategic autonomy revolves around eschewing alliances, while France embraces alliances but still defies them when doing so serves its own interests. Their insistence on foreign-policy independence furthers common strategic goals. France, for example, aims to balance both U.S. and Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific, which India supports.
India has also achieved success with France on nuclear power cooperation, contrasting with New Delhi’s struggles to capitalize on a civil nuclear deal with Washington. Finally, France doesn’t typically criticize India about values-based issues such as human rights and democracy—unlike the United States or Canada. That allows France to avoid a prime trigger for tensions in the partnership.”
Finally, a longer piece from last year by Mathieu Droin, Rajesh Basrur, Nicolas Blarel and Jyotsna Mehra on the overall tenor of the relationship, again making the point that it is beneficial to the US even if Washington, DC is not directly involved:
“Both countries have complex, often misunderstood relationships with the United States. They both aspire to a degree of independence from Washington policies, while being aware of their reliance on the United States for their defense and security. Therefore, critics of U.S. policies within Paris and Delhi are often seen as ungrateful by advocates of consolidated transatlantic and Indo-Pacific ties.
But what the latter fail to capture is the vested U.S. interest in having capable and autonomous partners in key regions, even at the cost of painful diplomatic engagement and coordination. The best testament to this need to carefully cultivate these partnerships is that Macron and Modi are two of the three world leaders that have been invited by the Biden administration for state visits in Washington (along with South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol).
The real stress test for Franco-Indian strategic cohesion lies in their respective assessment of how to engage other major, problematic, powers such as China and Russia.”
10 Links
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the ‘interim budget’ last week. Interim, because it’s technically a lame-duck document ahead of elections in a few months, though that didn’t stop the BJP from announcing major new initiatives five years ago. This time was much more staid, suggesting confidence going into election season:
What explains the government’s confidence? Roshan Kishore takes a look.
Yamini Aiyar and Avani Kapur on the government’s focus on tangible welfare assets, over diffuse public goods.
Jayati Ghosh on some of the tall claims made in the survey of the Indian economy that came ahead of the Budget.
Amit Basole and Zico Dasgupta on the growing gap between GDP growth and wages, suggesting “a worsening of the income distribution as well as weak improvements in welfare.”
Gautam Mukhopadhaya argues that fencing the India-Myanmar border is a the result of a fundamental misreading of the Manipur conflict and a signficant misstep that will backfire for India.
Hilal Ahmed on the Ram Temple as “a uniquely new site of official memory.”
Has the BJP underestimated Eknath Shinde in Maharashtra? Girish Kuber on Shinde’s OBC moves.
Israel’s plans to replace tens of thousands of Palestinian workers with labour from India is going forward.
Karishma Mehrotra on the efforts to recruit (non-Muslim) Indian workers.
Soutik Biswas reports on the recuritment for the BBC.
Constantino Xavier argues that the IMEC ought not to be derailed by the war in Gaza.
Biswajit Dhar takes a close look at the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme that were meant to boost manufacturing in India.
What happened to all the snow in the Himalayas? Nidhi Jamwal reports.
There were ‘world orders’ before modern Europe, writes Ayşe Zarakol, with this opening paragraph:
“The process that gave rise to Eurocentrism in social sciences and history is somewhat comparable to the follies of youth. Little children have difficulty believing that their parents existed before their birth. Teenagers often think that they are the first ones to have the experiences they are having as they make their way into adulthood. Young people usually think of previous generations as stodgy and old-fashioned, and of themselves as uniquely special and innovative. And they imagine they will be forever so, as if time will stop moving after them.
Part of growing up, however, is gradually breaking out of such narcissistic naiveté.”Ashwini Deshpande – an economist who, among other things, has worked on the lack of female participation in the Indian workforce – collects a set of Hindi film songs that feature women who work.
That’s it for India Inside Out this time. Send feedback, suggestions and links to pieces I missed to rohan.venkat AT gmail.com. Thanks for reading!